Trendrating: Gunning for Gold

In a difficult year for global stocks, Gold Miners have been particularly strong performers. However, according  to this recently published article on Bloomberg (see link) most funds missed out on this rally. On a YTD basis, GDX (Van Eck Vectors Gold Miners ETF) has returned about 84%. This compares to a 1.1% return delivered by…

Trendrating to Exhibit at CFA Institute Annual Conference in Montreal

8–11 May 2016 Palais des congrès de Montréal Montréal, Quebec, Canada #CFAInvest TRENDRATING – BOOTH #27 The flagship CFA Institute Annual Conference rotates continents and is one of the investment industry’s largest and longest running educational gatherings of investment professionals, attracting as many as 1,800 delegates from 70 countries and regions in prior years. A…

US Technology Stocks: Has FANG lost its bite?

US Technology stocks have continued their relatively poor start to 2016. At the time of writing, the Nasdaq Composite index is down 5.5% while the S&P 500 Index is up about 1.04% on a YTD basis. Exploring S&P 500 Gic Sectors, we find that Technology stocks are out performing only Financials and Health Care….again on…

Sectors Report_March 2016: Feasting on Telecoms and Utilities

This report will analyse the universe of indices covered by Trendrating. It will assess the distribution of momentum ratings, summarize rating changes observed over the last month, validate the performance of issued ratings over various time periods and finally, will graphically show the timing of some issued positive and negative ratings.  Sectors: Momentum Rating Distribution…

Trendrating: Great calls on Global Mining Stocks

Slowing global demand, particularly in China has been cited as a major reason why metals and mining stocks performed poorly in 2015. Indeed, as recently as December, the red metal (copper) was still hitting multi-year lows. 2016 appears to be bringing a change in fortune as investors begin dipping their toes back in this sector.…

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: European Banks

What a difference a year makes. This time last year investors were particularly bullish on European Banks as they were expected to benefit from higher bond yields, rising inflation expectations and an improving economic picture. Alas a slowdown in China and plunging oil prices have since changed this outlook. More recently, uninspiring earnings reports and…

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: Global Oil and Gas Stocks

WTI Crude has been on a steep downward trend, dropping over 75% in about 18 months.   At the time of writing, WTI had recently hit a 12-year low, briefly dipping below $27 per barrel.  As a result, Oil & Gas Produces, Equipment Service & Distribution companies have all seen sharp falls in their share prices.…

Don’t Unfriend the Trend

Forecasting trends is impossible.  Identifying and following trends is possible and can be highly lucrative. Trend Following and Legacy Momentum Approaches are some ways in which trends can be identified. However, they are not without their pit-falls. Trend Following systems, while quick to identify trends, tend to be erratic & unreliable in volatile markets, result…